As the weather cools down, many homeowners wonder if the winter or holiday season is a bad time to sell. Buyers also frequently ask about the best time of year to purchase a home.

For the past few years, I’ve been studying the relationship between new listings and contracts each month to better answer this question. The findings are always interesting.

The data I’ve analyzed covers single-family homes in and around Bozeman (excluding Belgrade) for the last four years. The “New Listings” column shows how many homes were listed that month. It’s important to note that it doesn’t represent the total number of homes available, as it doesn’t include the unsold inventory carried over from previous months. This carryover is a key factor to consider, as the total market inventory is always larger than the new listings for any given month.

The “New Contracts” column reflects the number of homes that went under contract, meaning buyers and sellers reached a written agreement to buy and sell a home. This is often a more insightful metric for buyer activity than closed sales, as the contract date shows when buyers are actively making offers.

The “Avg DOM” (Average Days on Market) column reflects the average days on market for the homes that were pending during that month. The fact that during many months the average days on market is greater than 30 days is another indicator that there would have been more active inventory than just the newly listed homes in any given month.

Interest rates, a pandemic, and this year’s election have somewhat reduced the typical seasonality of the market. In a typical year, buyers would often start emerging from their winter hibernation with cabin fever as soon as the first signs of spring started to show. As those who have lived in this valley for a long time know, that can vary widely from year to year. There have been years when the golf courses have opened before Valentine’s Day, and other years when snow has lingered in town well into late March and even April.

In any given year, there is usually not enough inventory on the market when buyers first emerge. Most sellers have a list of projects they want to complete before listing their home and often do not get their homes onto the market until June or July. As such, the market often sees a lack of supply in the late winter and early spring months. By mid-summer, the supply-demand pendulum has often swung in the other direction.

The data reveals both advantages and disadvantages to listing or buying in every season. While spring and summer see more buyer activity, they also bring more competition in the form of new listings. In contrast, winter months typically offer less inventory, but fewer buyers as well. Interestingly, the data shows that the 4th quarter often has the highest percentage of new listings going under contract, defying the common belief that winter is a poor time for real estate.

The takeaway? The best time to move may be when it works for you. Some may dread a winter move, while others may need to relocate for a job, or jump on a listing that’s a perfect fit. One benefit of winter listings is fewer “window shoppers.” If someone is viewing a home on a cold winter day, they’re likely a serious buyer. For buyers, you never know when that perfect dream home may hit the market. To be in a strong buying position, buyers should be pre-approved and ready to buy when the right opportunity arises.

This analysis does not account for price reductions, sales that fell through and re-entered the market, or carryover inventory, but it does provide a quick snapshot of buyer and seller activity.

The data was pulled from the Big Sky Country MLS on October 14, 2024.