As the weather cools and the holidays approach, homeowners often wonder whether they should list their property now or wait until spring. Buyers face a similar question: Is there a particular time of year when they’re more likely to find a good deal?

To help answer these questions, I’ve been tracking monthly listing and contract activity in the Bozeman real estate market over the past several years. The data focuses on single-family homes in and around Bozeman, excluding Belgrade. The “New Listings” column represents homes newly offered for sale each month, while “New Contracts” tracks properties that went under contract during that month. Average Days on Market (DOM) measures how long those properties were on the market before going under contract.

One important distinction: The percentage of new contracts compared to new listings doesn’t necessarily mean those particular homes sold that month. Many properties going under contract were listed in previous months. However, comparing the two numbers provides a useful snapshot of the relationship between new supply and buyer activity.

So, what does 2026 tell us?

Through the end of September, 954 single-family homes were newly listed in the Bozeman area, compared to 912 during the same period in 2025. That’s an increase of approximately 4.6%. Meanwhile, 581 homes went under contract, compared to 545 last year, an increase of 6.6%.

In other words, both listing activity and buyer activity have increased, with contracts growing at a slightly faster pace than new listings.

January was particularly interesting. Just 55 new homes came onto the market, while 51 went under contract. That’s a ratio of 93%, compared to 73% in January of 2025. It suggests buyers were relatively active despite the limited number of new properties available.

As we moved into spring, new listings increased significantly. By June, 150 homes were newly listed, while 79 went under contract. That’s a ratio of just 53%. May and July showed similar percentages, illustrating how the supply of new homes can outpace buyer activity during the summer months.

Interestingly, June also recorded the highest number of new contracts so far this year, with 79. Therefore, while the ratio of contracts to new listings was relatively low, buyer activity was actually quite strong.

By August and September, the balance began shifting again. New listings declined to 109 in August and 77 in September, while contracts totaled 69 and 57, respectively. The ratio climbed from 63% in August to 74% in September.

This is a pattern we’ve seen in previous years. Sellers tend to bring the greatest number of homes to market during late spring and early summer. Buyer activity doesn’t always increase at the same pace, resulting in more choices and potentially greater negotiating opportunities as the summer progresses.

What about the fall and winter months?

Looking at previous years, some of the highest ratios of new contracts to new listings actually occur during the colder months.

For example, in November 2024, there were just 44 new listings but 55 new contracts, a ratio of 125%. November 2023 showed a similar pattern, with 38 new listings and 46 contracts, or 121%.

December 2025 also posted a surprisingly strong ratio of 94%, with 31 new listings and 29 contracts.

These figures don’t mean homes sell faster or command higher prices during winter. They do suggest that while fewer buyers may be shopping, there are also considerably fewer new properties competing for their attention.

For sellers, this can create an opportunity. A well-priced home that shows nicely may stand out more in November or December than it would during the crowded spring and summer listing season.

For buyers, the opposite can be true. Summer often provides the greatest selection of homes, but it can also mean more competition from other buyers. As inventory accumulates, however, sellers whose properties have been sitting on the market may become more motivated to negotiate.

So, when is the best time to buy or sell?

The answer depends on your circumstances. Spring and early summer typically bring the greatest number of buyers and listings. Fall can offer buyers opportunities as sellers reassess their pricing, while winter may give sellers an advantage simply because there is less competition from other listings.

One thing the numbers consistently demonstrate is that the Bozeman real estate market doesn’t shut down when the snow starts flying. People buy and sell homes throughout the year, and those shopping during the holidays are often doing so for a reason, rather than simply browsing.Ultimately, pricing, property condition, location, and individual circumstances are often more important than the month on the calendar.

Data source: Big Sky Country MLS. 2026 figures reflect January through September. Contract-to-new-listing ratios compare monthly activity and are not the percentage of newly listed homes that ultimately sell. Data pulled on 10-9-2026